Driving Political Opinion

A few weeks ago Marlene Buckley posted a question: who uses the bumper sticker more, Democrats or Republicans? I’ve been keeping watch here in Iowa as we get closer to the 2008 Iowa Caucuses to see if there are visible trends among the many contenders. It appears that more cars are sporting Democrat candidate bumper stickers, at least in the Central Iowa area which often votes more blue than red. It also seems in my neighborhood on the west-side of Des Moines that there are more Democrat candidate yard signs.

Historically, the lower-economic quintiles have supported Democrat candidates and the upper-economic quintiles have supported Republican candidates. A 2005 study by the Pew Research Center for People and the Press provides a breakdown of voting trends by six demographic characteristics. Race is the most influential demographic driving party affiliation followed by gender, church attendance, and income.

Looking at a variety of social and economic influences over the past century, the study found that the “‘Republicans are rich/Democrats are poor’ stereotype is much more true now – at least at the extremes of the income curve – than it was a half century ago.”

If you have less money, you are more likely to drive an older model car than someone who has more money. A few researchers who have done some quantifiable research on the number of cars with bumper stickers have noted that older cars that have less value are more likely to have one or more bumper stickers than newer, more expensive and luxury model cars. And cars with stickers, especially multiple stickers, often support Democrat candidates and causes that would be considered liberal.

I still see an amazing amount of W-04 stickers on cars, and many of these are on SUVs, mini-vans, and sedans, more so than on economy or older model cars. I am going to conduct some field research this week, looking at cars in various locations here in Central Iowa to see what I can learn about bumper stickers on Iowa cars the week before the Iowa Caucuses. I want to look at cars in the parking lots of a few area malls, a few city and suburban churches this weekend, and I will also count bumper stickers in the parking lot at my caucus precinct.