Driving Political Opinion

Iowa strutted proudly last night as more than 354,000 people participated in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses (more than 10 percent of the state’s population and more than 15 percent of all registered voters). It seemed as if there were as many members of the media in town for the event. Today Iowa is a bit quieter (and a bit warmer as caucus temps were in the ‘20s around the state last night).

Mike Huckabee won the Republican race, with 32 percent of the votes over lead rival Mitt Romney who fell 9 points behind despite outspending Huckabee more than 15-1. Barack Obama not only won the Democrat race, with 38 percent of the vote, but the front runner, Hillary Clinton, came in third behind John Edwards.

Huckabee’s win is seen as a major upset among GOP insiders and neo-con Republicans but his populist appeal resonated with Iowa voters. Likewise, Obama’s win threatens the established Clinton machine. Both winners along with the runner-ups left the state for New Hampshire were they are already campaigning this morning just four days out from Tuesday’s primary.

In the wake of their departure, snow and ice covered Iowa cars are wearing bumper stickers of both the winners and losers, a sign of political engagement in our nation’s free and democratic election process.

The bumper sticker may not necessarily be the best form of advertisement to convince others to support a candidate. It may be hard to measure how many people see a particular sticker, read it, contemplate it, and are persuaded by it to support a candidate. But what the bumper sticker does is to help concretize a voter’s decision to support a candidate days, weeks or months in advance of Election Day.

Research on decision making in elections shows that often about a third of the voters who will go to the polls make their minds up early, a third are “middle” deciders and a third are late deciders. The sooner a candidate can secure the support of voters, the better chance they may have of not just retaining that voter but of then focusing on efforts to influence undecided voters.

There can be a synergetic effect with a charismatic candidate who attracts voters early. These supporters can have a direct influence on others. Including the undecided and independent voter. The yard sign, bumper sticker or lapel button are ways for an early or middle decider to participate in the campaign process by engaging others in conversation and thought. But perhaps, most importantly, voters who publically declare their support in advance of the election are more likely to stick with their candidate and in doing so may bring others along with them.